The September iPhone Launch

Earlier this morning, as I scrolled through my RSS reader, I came across a number of articles mentioning an unassuming and altogether unremarkable AllThingsD piece by Ina Fried. Despite its lukewarm tone, the prediction of a September iPhone launch event ran the gamut of popular tech sites and garnered a great deal of attention even though it said nothing surprising or even particularly interesting at this point. Setting that aside for a future article though, I would like to focus on the rumor itself.

Discerning the likelihood of a September launch event is no more complicated than observing Apple’s somewhat established track record. Beginning with the first iPhone in June of 2007, Apple went on to deliver further iterations in July, June, and then June once again before moving to a later launch date of October and, most recently, September. This portion of the rumor seems like a no-brainer: after gradually pushing iPhone launch dates further back each year and now abutting the holiday season, it seems unlikely that Apple will continue shifting the launch date significantly. That specific date, on the other hand, and the manner through which Ina Fried could have deduced it remains a mystery to me. Once again pointing back to the past, Apple released the last two iPhones on a Friday; AllThingsDo, however, reports a launch on Tuesday. Both iOS 5 and iOS 6 hit the market on a Wednesday. If I had to guess — and this far in to this article, I do — I would place my money on either Thursday or Friday, September 12th or 13th.

Every time someone publishes an article confirming or in some way adding to the discussion surrounding a rumor, and every time I or another writer picks it apart in minute detail, I chuckle to myself. But that’s what so much of this industry is based upon: minute details upon which one platform or product can differentiate itself.